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On Streaks
Perception, Probability and Skill

Long streaks are, and must be, a matter of extraordinary luck imposed on great skill. Stephen Jay Gould

Anyone can theoretically roll 12 sevens in a row.
Bill Gross

Finding the Hot Shot

Humans are natural pattern seekers. One well-known example is the hot hand in basketball. A player who makes a few baskets in a row is considered to have a hot hand, which implies that he has a higher-than-normal chance of sinking his next shot. Research shows that sports fans, and the athletes themselves, believe in the hot hand phenomenon.
The Consilient Observer vol 2 no 8

Download the Adobe .pdf report. This free report is about probability and trading skill. It debunks the error of betting on trends. Successful traders profit  because they have some consistent advantages allowing them to win more often and with far larger profits than losers.













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