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On Streaks
Perception, Probability and Skill

Long streaks are, and must be, a matter of extraordinary luck imposed on great skill.

Stephen Jay Gould

Anyone can theoretically roll 12 sevens in a row.

Bill Gross

Finding the Hot Shot

Humans are natural pattern seekers. One well-known example is the hot hand in basketball. A player who makes a few baskets in a row is considered to have a hot hand, which implies that he has a higher-than-normal chance of sinking his next shot. Research shows that sports fans, and the athletes themselves, believe in the hot hand phenomenon.
The Consilient Observer vol 2 no 8

Download the Adobe .pdf report. This free report is about probability and trading skill. It debunks the error of betting on trends. Successful traders profit� because they have some consistent advantages allowing them to win more often and with far larger profits than losers.

Copyright �2004 ARB Trading | Risk Notice & Disclaimer
Please contact us at: [email protected].


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